Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines are reportedly in talks to merge. Sounds like déjà vu? It is.
Frontier and Spirit first unveiled plans for a $2.9 billion merger in February 2022 that would have created the fifth largest airline in the U.S. Then JetBlue Airways stepped in that April and foiled the plans with a hostile $3-plus billion proposal that Spirit ultimately accepted. That deal collapsed this past March after it was blocked by a federal judge.
Mergers, at face value, have a mixed history. They can result in less competition and higher airfares. But they can also make the resulting airlines stronger and better able to expand to new destinations they could not previously.
But the benefits of combining Frontier and Spirit arguably outweigh the first risk. For one, Spirit is struggling. It’s cutting routes because dozens of its planes are grounded due to engine issues. And, with a big debt bill due next year, it faces a possible bankruptcy that Wall Street analysts think would result in it shrinking — maybe dramatically — in size. And a smaller Spirit would not be good for consumers.
“A national high utilization ultra-low-cost carrier takes away the dynamic of two spill carriers chasing the same cost-conscious traffic,” wrote Tom Fitzgerald, an airline analyst at the investment bank TD Cowen, in a report shared with Travel + Leisure on Wednesday. “The combined entity will likely be in a stronger position to compete in the Southeast and Caribbean.”
And a stronger competitor would be good for consumers, driving down average airfares and giving them more options when they travel.
A combined Frontier-Spirit would be the fifth largest U.S. airline by seats, October schedule data from aviation analytics firm Cirium Diio shows. The airline would even be larger than Alaska Airlines after its recently approved merger with Hawaiian Airlines. It would serve 115 cities, including 24 international destinations in countries such as Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico.
Frontier-Spirit would also be the largest airline at South Florida’s second busiest airport, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, and the second largest airline in popular destinations like Dallas-Fort Worth, Las Vegas, and Orlando.
And Frontier-Spirit, based on a presentation on the merits of their first merger proposal from 2022, could be strengthened to enter new markets that neither airline serves today, like Eugene, Ore., Ithaca, N.Y., and Worcester, Mass.
First, however, Frontier and Spirit must agree to a deal. That could be part of a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by Spirit, according to The Wall Street Journal’s report. In the best case scenario, consumers would not begin to see any benefit from a Frontier-Spirit merger until 2026 at the earliest.